Somalia: Exploring Future Horizons
By Hodan Ahmad and UNDP Somalia Accelerator Lab Team
In early 2021 I asked a group of youth (Somali Futures Group, group Accelerator Lab Somalia established in 2021) to imagine Mogadishu after 10 years…The odd thing was that no one gave a rosy picture, nor digital utopia but instead an interesting discussion resulted going further towards the future of conflict, peace and the necessity of struggle for progress.
Futures thinking in a crisis context?
Education and the Future of Work
Inspired by the changing nature of work report from the Accelerator Lab network , our thinking about the future was directed within the critical issue of education and future of work, our question became: How can we re-imagine education in Somalia while taking into consideration the evolving nature of work?
Thus, to help answer this question we designed a session collaborating with the Ministry of Youth in Somaliland for the benefit of youth from different higher education institutions, NGOs, and government.
During the design process, the issue of applying futures thinking or even foresight in a crisis setting and challenging context showed itself as another side challenge. Futures thinking, foresight, futurism, and futurology are all challenging as Dator (2002) kept on repeating, further discribing it as “an unnatural act”. In the sense that the human brain searches for the past instead of imagining the future and what happened in the past is projected onto the future. Therefore, in crisis countries, these practices may not be so easy in application. The thought of imagining a future without the constraints of reality is asking too much from a target audience. This situation is what we found ourselves in, and we understood that we needed to find a way to break the psychological barrier for our audience. If we start with the future, everyone’s mind will go directly to barriers and a blame game ensues usually towards government institutions, trade embargo’s, lack of business opportunities, challenges related to youth, and many more.
Real-Life Application of Futures thinking with a twist: Part I
We redirected the workshop to start from the past. Acknowledging the barriers they face present and past related to education and employment. According to (Inayatullah, 2002) “the imagined future is only possible once the reality of the past extended had been acknowledged. A new present could be created”. Then asked them to imagine the worst possible future (the barriers become worse) and acknowledged this imagined future.
Then we went to the exact opposite and shared stories about experiences with future’s thinking and how the outputs of these processes helped private sector companies, organizations, or governments to achieve positive change. This was the most interesting part for all our audience, and they were positively captivated and helped to lower their risk-averse mindset.
“Aversion to risk is a main behavioral barrier in crisis countries as people develop this mindset as a means of survival, which is necessary for day-to-day life. However, it is restricting to growth, innovation, and creative thinking for individuals and thus communities. In this case of educational institutions, this behavior is a reality in uncertain environments.” Sohail Inayatullah- UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies Australia
Reality of Education:
Somalia is going through economic and societal change with a growing population and a continued state of vulnerability to humanitarian crises (UNESCO, 2022). The population is relatively young in a country of 16 million in 2020 of which half are eligible to attend school.
Progress was made in the institutionalization of the education system despite continued low enrolment rates. The educational structure was improved through the adoption of the General education Act in February 2021. While many private schools, colleges, universities, and training centers complement government efforts in education. However, the question of the quality of the education and skill-building offered by both public and private institutions remains a difficult one to answer. With a lack of assessment data, new examination systems and high pass rates indicated a disparity in the quality of education and skill building offered by institutions. This lack of quality in education was identified as one of the key factors hindering the effectiveness of capacity-building efforts done to improve governance and build government institutions. Our challenge for 2022 was defined by this question: how can we contribute to the improvement of education in a challenging context?
We spoke with university heads, innovation centers, youth centers, and private institutions from different cities to understand the problem and how each of these stakeholders were going to solve it. From our consultations, we found a huge gap between the real job market needs of the country on different socio-economic levels, regions, and even urban/rural divides and the educational offering whether it is higher, vocational, or primary. Then again, job market needs are changing in a dynamic global economy. As much as Somalia might be a bit isolated from the world economy because of different embargos, yet it is still very much connected directly or indirectly by any changes in the world economy.
Real-Life Application of Futures thinking with a twist: Part II
Signals of change:
After the ground was set, we felt the audience relax and more receptive after part I. We did a signals identification exercise after dividing them into three groups, over time horizons chosen by each group. The primary focus of the three groups was related to digital transformation of education and consensus was that due to the advancement of the telecom industry in Somalia the most transformation would come from that direction. Then these signals were translated into future scenarios by the groups.
Future Scenarios:
Group 1: Digital skills
Presented is a scenario in which online education becomes highly accessible due to the increased speed of internet connections. As a result, local telecom companies would enable access to education in remote areas. Another consequence of this development is the growth of online businesses and the creation of more jobs. Additionally, the faster connection speed can make health advancements like telemedicine applications more feasible and accessible. In this scenario, it would be easier for local institutions, organizations, and government entities to establish partnerships with regional and international partners. As mentioned in the National Education Strategic Sector Plan (ESSP 2022–2026), there is a need for a coherent set of choices that emphasize creating equitable access to pre-primary, primary, and secondary education, improving the quality of education, focusing on Information, Communication and Technology (ICT), as well as ensuring quality and relevance in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) and higher education. These choices and priorities require long-term commitment and significant investment, which should be maintained at least in the medium term.
“Tech will increase health, education, and employment opportunities” Group 1 Summary.
Group 2: TVET skills
Group 2 identified vocational education and training as necessary in Somalia, particularly if electronics become more expensive in the future. People will need to be able to maintain their current devices or develop their own innovations. To achieve this, technical skills should be taught early on in schools, with a curriculum that integrates both technical and digital skills. This will ensure that devices and tools are available for future generations, regardless of global trade embargos, economic downturns, or conflicts. Furthermore, it is even possible to imagine a scenario in which Somalia can outsource their digitally skilled workforce to other countries and share their knowledge.
“In 20 years, Somalia will be able to produce devices, tools, and technologies locally and be self-sufficient” Group 2 Summary.
Group 3: Web development skills
The last group anticipated a scenario in which the surge in e-commerce would lead to increased demand for web development skills and content creation. The establishment of local Amazon-like companies for products and services could stimulate economic growth and job opportunities. These skills could become popular within communities, leading to a higher demand for upskilling and research. As a result, within the next 10 years, Somali youth may be capable of creating their own programming languages, Group 3 summary.
“If you don’t know where you are going any road can take you there” L. Carrol British(author, poet, and mathematician)
A glimpse into Somalia’s Future:
After the end of the session, we realized that the result of our inquiry was an answer to another question: What area of education should we focus on in Somalia’s rapidly changing environment? Simple: Access to education, Improving quality of education with special care on techinical fields.
Now going back to DALLE-3’s and how it envisions the future of Somalia. Here is the algorithm’s opinion:
DALEE-3 Here’s what I envision:
- Urban Development: Modern skyscrapers and innovative architecture in the capital, Mogadishu. Clean streets, well-maintained parks, and a vibrant urban environment with public transportation like buses and electric cars.
- Coastal Development: The beautiful coastline with modern resorts, marinas, and bustling marketplaces near the sea, highlighting Somalia’s potential as a tourist destination.
- Infrastructure and Technology: High-tech buildings with solar panels, wind turbines, and tech hubs indicating technological growth and renewable energy adoption.
- Cultural Elements: Traditional Somali architecture, cultural landmarks, and people wearing a mix of traditional attire and modern clothing, signifying a blend of heritage and progress.
- Green Spaces: Lush greenery, parks, and trees indicating efforts towards reforestation and environmental sustainability.
Although the predictions are general, a bit audacious but that is what futures thinking should be about, letting the imagination run free!
Next Steps: Future Re-imaging
The Accelerator Lab Somalia plans to lead a series of futures foucsed sessions with Somalia students and academic institutions. Here participants will be equipped with futures-thinking methodologies, empowering them to share the future of Somalia’s educational system then going further into other areas of development like DALLE did. By embracing foresight and reimagining possibilities, we can help Somalia move towards a brighter and more innovative future — one where education becomes the key to unlocking the country’s vast potential.
Authored by Hodan Ahmed Abdullahi, Head of Exploration at the UNDP Accelerator Lab, and with the assistance from Ahmed Mohammed, Youth Delegate and Abdullahi Hashi, Youth Associate from UNDP Somalia.
